Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results

Effect of arsenic-phosphorus interaction on arsenic-induced oxidative stress in chickpea plants

Arsenic-induced oxidative stress in chickpea was investigated under glasshouse conditions in response to application of arsenic and phosphorus. Three levels of arsenic (0, 30 and 60 mg kg−1) and four levels of P (50, 100, 200, and 400 mg kg−1) were applied to soil-grown plants. Increasing levels of both arsenic and P significantly increased arsenic concentrations in the plants. Shoot growth was reduced with increased arsenic supply regardless of applied P levels. Applied arsenic induced oxidative stress in the plants, and the concentrations of H2O2 and lipid peroxidation were increased. Activity of superoxide dismutase (SOD) and concentrations of non-enzymatic antioxidants decreased in these plants, but activities of catalase (CAT) and ascorbate peroxidase (APX) were significantly increased under arsenic phytotoxicity. Increased supply of P decreased activities of CAT and APX, and decreased concentrations of non-enzymatic antioxidants, but the high-P plants had lowered lipid peroxidation. It can be concluded that P increased uptake of arsenic from the soil, probably by making it more available, but although plant growth was inhibited by arsenic the P may have partially protected the membranes from arsenic-induced oxidative stress

The Seroprevalence and Seroincidence of Enterovirus71 Infection in Infants and Children in Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam

Enterovirus 71 (EV71)-associated hand, foot and mouth disease has emerged as a serious public health problem in South East Asia over the last decade. To better understand the prevalence of EV71 infection, we determined EV71 seroprevalence and seroincidence amongst healthy infants and children in Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam. In a cohort of 200 newborns, 55% of cord blood samples contained EV71 neutralizing antibodies and these decayed to undetectable levels by 6 months of age in 98% of infants. The EV71 neutralizing antibody seroconversion rate was 5.6% in the first year and 14% in the second year of life. In children 5–15 yrs of age, seroprevalence of EV71 neutralizing antibodies was 84% and in cord blood it was 55%. Taken together, these data suggest EV71 force of infection is high and highlights the need for more research into its epidemiology and pathogenesis in high disease burden countries

Molecular Analysis of Virulent Determinants of Enterovirus 71

Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is the most important causative agent of hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children. In most cases, it is a self-limiting illness. However some EV71 infectious cases can develop severe clinical outcomes, such as encephalitis, meningitis, poliomyelitis like paralysis, and even death. To identify the determinants of virulence, the deduced amino acid sequence of polyprotein and nucleotide sequence of 5′-NTR and 3′-NTR in 25 SC-EV71 strains (strains from severe cases) and 31 MC-EV71 strains (strains from mild cases) were analyzed. Results showed four amino acids on two positions (GlyP710/GlnP710/ArgP710 and GluP729) on the DE and EF loop of VP1, one (LysP930) on the surface of protease 2A and four nucleotides on three positions (GP272, UP488 and AP700/UP700) in the 5'-NTR region are associated with EV71 virulent phenotype. Predicted secondary structure of RNA using the consensus sequence of 5'-NTR by RNAStructure showed the mutation of nucleotide at position 488 in strain BJ08-Z004-3 (position 491 in prototype strain BrCr) can result in the discrepancy of an additional pair of nucleotides and thus change the stability of the second structure of IRES. Fragment base content analysis showed that in the region 696 to 714 bp at the 5'-NTR, where the AP700/UP700 was located, the nucleotide constitution ratios differed significantly between SC-EV71 and MC-EV71 strains. In conclusion, comparative genomic analysis showed that virulence of EV71 strains are mainly determined by the amino acids on two positions of VP1, one position of protease 2A and the nucleotides on three positions in 5'-NTR

Situação epidemiológica e a relação com variáveis meteorológicas da HFMD em Guangzhou, sul da China, 2008-2012

A doença de mão-pé-e-boca (HFMD) está se tornando doença extremamente comum transmitida pelo ar e contato em Guangzhou, sul da China, levando preocupação às autoridades de saúde pública acerca da sua incidência aumentada. Neste estudo foi usada parte ecológica e regressão binomial negativa para identificar o status epidêmico da HFMD e sua relação com variáveis meteorológicas. Durante 2008-2012 um total de 173.524 casos confirmados de HFMD foram apresentados, 12 com morte, elevando o índice de fatalidade a 0,69 por 10.000. As incidências anuais de 2008 a 2010 foram 60,56, 132,44, 311,40, 402,76 e 468,59 por 100.000, respectivamente, mostrando tendência de rápido aumento. Cada 1 °C de aumento da temperatura correspondeu a aumento de 9,47% (95% CI 9,36% a 9,58%) no número semanal de casos de HFMD, enquanto a 1 hPa de aumento da pressão atmosférica correspondeu a decréscimo no número de casos de 7,53% (95% CI - 7,60% a - 7,45%). De maneira semelhante cada aumento de 1% na humidade relativa correspondeu a aumento de 1,48% ou 3,3% e a um aumento de 1 metro por hora na velocidade do vento correspondeu a um aumento de 2,18% ou 4,57%, no número de casos semanais de HFMD, dependendo das variáveis consideradas no modelo. Estes achados revelaram que o status epidêmico do HFMD em Guangzhou é caracterizado por alta morbidade, mas baixa fatalidade. Fatores referentes ao tempo tiveram influência significante na incidência do HFMD.Hand-foot-and-mouth disease (HFMD) is becoming one of the extremely common airborne and contact transmission diseases in Guangzhou, southern China, leading public health authorities to be concerned about its increased incidence. In this study, it was used an ecological study plus the negative binomial regression to identify the epidemic status of HFMD and its relationship with meteorological variables. During 2008-2012, a total of 173,524 HFMD confirmed cases were reported, 12 cases of death, yielding a fatality rate of 0.69 per 10,000. The annual incidence rates from 2008 to 2012 were 60.56, 132.44, 311.40, 402.76, and 468.59 (per 100,000), respectively, showing a rapid increasing trend. Each 1 °C rise in temperature corresponded to an increase of 9.47% (95% CI 9.36% to 9.58%) in the weekly number of HFMD cases, while a one hPa rise in atmospheric pressure corresponded to a decrease in the number of cases by 7.53% (95% CI -7.60% to -7.45%). Similarly, each one percent rise in relative humidity corresponded to an increase of 1.48% or 3.3%, and a one meter per hour rise in wind speed corresponded to an increase of 2.18% or 4.57%, in the weekly number of HFMD cases, depending on the variables considered in the model. These findings revealed that epidemic status of HFMD in Guangzhou is characterized by high morbidity but low fatality. Weather factors had a significant influence on the incidence of HFMD

Clustered Gene Expression Changes Flank Targeted Gene Loci in Knockout Mice

Gene expression profiling using microarrays is a powerful technology widely used to study regulatory networks. Profiling of mRNA levels in mutant organisms has the potential to identify genes regulated by the mutated protein.Using tissues from multiple lines of knockout mice we have examined genome-wide changes in gene expression. We report that a significant proportion of changed genes were found near the targeted gene.The apparent clustering of these genes was explained by the presence of flanking DNA from the parental ES cell. We provide recommendations for the analysis and reporting of microarray data from knockout mice

Essential Functions of the Histone Demethylase Lid

Drosophila Little imaginal discs (Lid) is a recently described member of the JmjC domain class of histone demethylases that specifically targets trimethylated histone H3 lysine 4 (H3K4me3). To understand its biological function, we have utilized a series of Lid deletions and point mutations to assess the role that each domain plays in histone demethylation, in animal viability, and in cell growth mediated by the transcription factor dMyc. Strikingly, we find that lid mutants are rescued to adulthood by either wildtype or enzymatically inactive Lid expressed under the control of its endogenous promoter, demonstrating that Lid's demethylase activity is not essential for development. In contrast, ubiquitous expression of UAS-Lid transgenes lacking its JmjN, C-terminal PHD domain, and C5HC2 zinc finger were unable to rescue lid homozygous mutants, indicating that these domains carry out Lid's essential developmental functions. Although Lid-dependent demethylase activity is not essential, dynamic removal of H3K4me3 may still be an important component of development, as we have observed a genetic interaction between lid and another H3K4me3 demethylase, dKDM2. We also show that Lid's essential C-terminal PHD finger binds specifically to di- and trimethylated H3K4 and that this activity is required for Lid to function in dMyc-induced cell growth. Taken together, our findings highlight the importance of Lid function in the regulated removal and recognition of H3K4me3 during development

Predicting Cellular Growth from Gene Expression Signatures

Maintaining balanced growth in a changing environment is a fundamental systems-level challenge for cellular physiology, particularly in microorganisms. While the complete set of regulatory and functional pathways supporting growth and cellular proliferation are not yet known, portions of them are well understood. In particular, cellular proliferation is governed by mechanisms that are highly conserved from unicellular to multicellular organisms, and the disruption of these processes in metazoans is a major factor in the development of cancer. In this paper, we develop statistical methodology to identify quantitative aspects of the regulatory mechanisms underlying cellular proliferation in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We find that the expression levels of a small set of genes can be exploited to predict the instantaneous growth rate of any cellular culture with high accuracy. The predictions obtained in this fashion are robust to changing biological conditions, experimental methods, and technological platforms. The proposed model is also effective in predicting growth rates for the related yeast Saccharomyces bayanus and the highly diverged yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe, suggesting that the underlying regulatory signature is conserved across a wide range of unicellular evolution. We investigate the biological significance of the gene expression signature that the predictions are based upon from multiple perspectives: by perturbing the regulatory network through the Ras/PKA pathway, observing strong upregulation of growth rate even in the absence of appropriate nutrients, and discovering putative transcription factor binding sites, observing enrichment in growth-correlated genes. More broadly, the proposed methodology enables biological insights about growth at an instantaneous time scale, inaccessible by direct experimental methods. Data and tools enabling others to apply our methods are available at http://function.princeton.edu/growthrate

Spatiotemporal cluster patterns of hand, foot, and mouth disease at the county level in Mainland China, 2008-2012

Background: Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is known to be a highly contagious childhood illness. In recent years, the number of reported cases of HFMD has significantly increased in mainland China. This study aims at the epidemiological features, spatiotemporal patterns of HMFD at the county/district level in mainland China. Methods: Data on reported HFMD cases for each county from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2012 were obtained from the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Cluster analysis, spatial autocorrelation, and retrospective scan methods were used to explore the spatiotemporal patterns of the disease. Results: The annual incidences varied greatly among the counties, ranging from 0 to 74.31‰with the median of 5.42‰ (interquartile range: 1.54‰–13.55‰) during 2008–2012 in mainland China. Counties close to provincial capital cities generally had higher incidences than rural counties. A seasonal distribution was observed between the northern and southern China, of which dual epidemic were shown in southern China and usually only one in northern China. Based on the global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis, we found that the spatial distribution of HFMD was presented a significant clustering pattern for each year (P \u3c 0.001), and hotspots of the disease were mostly distributed in coastal provinces of China. The retrospective scan statistic further identified the dynamics of spatiotemporal clustering areas of the disease, which were mainly distributed in the counties of eastern and southern China, as well as provincial capitals and their surrounding counties. Conclusions: The spatiotemporal clustering areas of the disease identified in this way were relatively stable, and imminent public health planning and resource allocation should be focused within those areas